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Singapore may ease property curbs in 2H2015, says UBS

November 28, 2014 9:22 AM SGT

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SINGAPORE (Nov 28): Singapore may ease restrictions on the property market in the second half of 2015 after the US Federal Reserve's first interest-rate hike in the second quarter, according to UBS.

"We think additional buyer and seller stamp duties could be cut or removed. We also think loan-to-value limits could be reviewed following a fall in property prices," UBS analysts wrote in a Singapore strategy report.

"We think this could serve as a catalyst for the developers, which are trading at an average 30% to 35% discount to RNAV, below long-term averages."

What might stay could be the total debt servicing ratio, introduced by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in June last year, they noted.

That said, any easing could be pushed back if the US central bank's first rate hike is after 2Q2015, they added.

UBS expects home prices, which have declined 4% from the most recent peak in the property market, to fall 10% to 15%.

It believes the impact on developers' revalued net asset value and earnings per share will be small: RNAVs would decline 2% and 2015 earnings would fall 5% if home prices retreat 10%.

UBS' top property picks are CapitaLand, Global Logistic Properties and UOL Group.

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