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UBS optimistic on Australia, Japan real estate markets

By Tan Chee Yuen

/ UBS, The Edge Property |

April 5, 2016 11:32 AM SGT

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UBS Asset Management is optimistic on the Australian and Japanese real estate markets, according to its latest Asia Pacific quarterly outlook report. Amid a challenging macro conditions, transaction volume for commercial real estate fell 12% y-o-y in 2015. However, Japan and Australia bucked the trend as domestic lenders eased their credit policies on account of improving fundamentals and collateral quality.

Toh Shaowei, UBS Asset Management director of research and strategy for Asia Pacific, says: "Broadly speaking, the near-term condition in APAC region is still challenging and there is a 'longer winter', but the long-term fundamentals remain strong. We see a few macro themes and continue to monitor them."

In Japan, household spending is likely to be the main driver of economic growth on the back of ongoing wage rises, healthy job market and lower oil prices. Negative interest rates have also boosted capital expenditures. Notably, these expenditures have focused largely on new product development, R&D and efficiency saving measures to counter aging population and labour shortages.

Occupancy rates and rents for Japan’s key office markets have also trended up due to limited new supply and steady demand from large corporates. These corporates have benefited from Bank of Japan’s asset purchases, lower borrowing costs and weaker currency which boosted earnings.

The leasing market in the Japanese logistics sector remains robust on the back of increasing demand for same day deliveries from end users and growth of online shopping. However, rising supply from new developments are likely to restrict overall rental growth.

In Australia, Sydney and Melbourne led the recovery in the office leasing market as the country shifts its growth model from the mining sector and resource-rich state. Finance and insurance, professional services and the technology, media and telecommunications sector are the key drivers of demand for office space. Meanwhile, net absorption level in resource-rich states of Queensland and Western Australia continue to lag but is gradually stabilising, says UBS.

Separately, robust demand from international retailers looking to gain exposure to the Australian market have strengthened the rents and occupancy rate of prime retail space. However, secondary retail space is expected to continue to underperform amid subdued wage growth and increasing penetration of online retailers. UBS anticipates near-term rental growth to remain below historical averages as households allocates a higher share of their incomes to healthcare and education.

On the home front, the outlook for Singapore’s real estate market remains challenging in the near term. The clampdown in foreign labour supply and an elusive labour productivity gain have lifted business costs and dented corporate sentiments. Coupled with a supply onslaught, UBS expects the overall office sector performance to remain depressed over the next two years.

UBS expects the weakness to be broad-based across all property segments. Singapore’s retail rents are likely to witness a flat to marginal declines over the next 12 months while sluggish manufacturing outlook is clouding the overall prospects for the industrial property sector.

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